00:00:04,630	It. Worse things that people this is rachel. I’m going to see if everyone on the zoom invite can hear me, deidre. I. See that you’re online. Yep I can hear you OK you’re coming through. Uh, john. I. See, you’re online also. Yes. And. I can hear you. Great. Thanks, john. Um Let’s see. Hi.

00:00:28,600	Kristen, I see you. Good. Morning. Good morning. Uh, jason, I see you. Can you hear me? Yeah. Good morning. Great. Thanks. Hi blue. How are you doing? I’m doing excellent. How, are you? Excellent? I’m well as as as well, Thank you, um let’s see. Do. I have a quorum two or 68.

00:00:51,170	I have a quorum and I think we have Yeah. We have every everyone we need, so I’ll get started. Uh, well, good morning, everyone. Uh, thank you for coming today. I will call to order the April Uh, Meeting of the NP technical Advisory Committee. Uh, it is April 15th at 10:01 A.m..

00:01:19,270	We will start with Roll call. Mhm. Ben here, dan Sri Deirdre hughes. They game shell here. John Saki. Here. Andrew Strai witness. Greg Fraser. Here, Mitch Flanagan. Natalie Pearce. Dean Schloss Wayne Zacker chairs here. Item one on the agenda is review impossible. Approval of the minutes are their wishes from the board.

00:01:59,730	This has been I would move to approve as presented. Thanks ben, I have a first. Is there a second? I’ll second that. Thanks, andrew. Roll call, please. Ben Ar? Yes, Deirdre Hughes. Yes game shall Yes, John Sack. Yes, Andrew Stra, greg Fraser, Mitch Flanigan Desch Yes. Wayne Zacker Chaired Lukaszewski minutes are approved.

00:02:31,900	Item two on the agenda is the 2024 2027 Transportation Improvement Program Amendments with Steven Thank you chair. Give me Just one moment I will share screen with you. All, right. So. Thank you very much So this month. The NP. We processed two amendments to the 24 through 2027 transportation improvement program. Uh, we did advertise the amendments for the required 15 Day public comment period.

00:03:38,770	We did not receive any comments on these. So. The First amendment is on your screen. It is exhibit a The amendment is a project for rectangular, rapid flashing beacon installations at four locations in Mandan recommended by the school Safety crossing Study. Uh, for reference.

00:04:02,900	These are the Custer Lewis and clark and Mary Stark elementary schools and 46th Avenue crossing. Um, the cost estimates for this project have increased and they are noted on the amendment for this is a fairly routine process, but it does require an amendment. I what was moved to the Second Amendment. And this is exhibit B.

00:04:31,600	It adds an entirely new project to our tip, North Dakota Department of transportation is undertaking rail crossing signal improvements at the rail crossings on Eastdale Drive and on East Main Avenue. Uh, the total cost between these two is estimated to be 872,440. It is going to be 100% of federally funded Are there Any questions on either of these amendments.

00:04:57,970	Thank you Steven Any initial questions? I see no questions from the board. I note that this was advertised as a public hearing and I will open the public hearing for anyone from the public who wishes to make a comment or ask a question on the amendments. This is a public hearing. This is my second call for public hearing.

00:05:16,530	And my third call for public hearing. I see no comments. I will close the public hearing and I’ll ask for wishes from the board. This is gabe moved to approve as presented, Uh, thank you, Gabe. I have a first. Is there a second? I’ll second that Thank you, andrew. We’ll take roll call. Ben Harris. Yes, Deirdre Hughes. Yes Game show.

00:05:46,330	Okay. Oh, yes, John sacking. Yes, Andrew stra, Greg fasser, Mitch Flanagan Dean Schloss, Wayne Zacker and chair lukaszewski. Uh yes. The amendments are approved. Moving to item three. We have, uh An update on the arrived 2050 MTP as well as the final report for the arrive. 2050 forecast.

00:06:15,200	Uh, Jason, I will let you have the podium out and I’ll let you, uh Take on. Uh whichever of those two you’d like to do first. OK? Um yeah, I’ll go ahead and share some slides What I was wanting to do is to give a high level.

00:06:38,670	Uh, overview of the, uh The, the the document that kind of takes care of the forecasting of the the Forecasting, Uh, I guess phase of of the project. The part where you know we’ve got the two phases that SRF led the, uh, our partners on this led the development of the socio economic data.

00:06:53,700	Um so that we could have, you know, kind of a good picture of what we think Development is gonna be like for the year. 2050 then um, hdr kind of helped lead the, uh, the portion where we reviewed the model that ATAC was putting together I know a lot of you were involved in this so I will keep this pretty high level about the contents of that document. Man.

00:07:14,770	Here we go, so just wanted to give a high level overview of the document outline. Um we’re gonna kind of walk through each of these, but basically talk about some of the engagement, the steering committee and our focus groups.

00:07:30,470	Um, how we kind of looked at socio economic trends and data sources to identify Um, the the growth and then the growth are scenario development itself. And, then kind of the allocation about where it went. And then the the review of the travel model. Um, you know again, the the travel models really founded on you know that connection between transportation and land use.

00:07:47,230	Um you know how we connect the places we live and work and and how much travel and what does that travel look like? Um, is really what the model is all about, and I’ll kind of leave it at that, because I know a lot of you are pretty familiar with that process. Um, so steering committee input process. Um again.

00:08:02,530	I know a lot of you are involved in this, but you know, we had our kickoff in November 2022 in in February of last year reviewed the socio-economic forecast from previous planning efforts and kind of started to Come up with, you know, forecast methodology and what you know those high medium and low forecasts might look like Um,

00:08:21,770	kind of got by off. Um, at that point on those those scenarios for kind of regional growth, and then then went, you know, for each side of the river about how that allocation would look Um, and then continued, uh, inputs on the steering committee.

00:08:39,230	Um And then you know, had a few iterations with you all on the the travel model, and we’ll kind of talk through some of that. Um, we did also have focus group inputs, um, late last year. Early this year, um, from a range of different technical professionals, kind of on land use and development patterns.

00:08:56,930	Um and you can see we’ve we’ve got them kind of represented here on this list. Um, but again, we we just looked for expectations for growth. Drivers of growth, challenges and opportunities. Just that that, OK, you know, we we battle this data. Is there anything you know any blind spots in that anything we should know about. And. So again.

00:09:17,230	Let’s You know they, um, the our partners that are srf kind of built A. Uh, a a projection model based on births and deaths and migration and looking at different age cohorts. Um, look at households and jobs and, you know, could see trends in employment.

00:09:36,400	You see on the left side and then in in GDP gross domestic product, um, looked at average household size number of households by each of those different jurisdictions. Um And then started to get into the development of the gross scenarios kind of looked at national trends.

00:09:55,730	You know overall, you know, since the the post War era we’ve really seen, you know, a a peak in in in population growth, but that’s kind of it started to trail up a little bit over time. Um, you can see other areas on population projections from a, uh in independent economics firm called Woods and Poole, Um, household size projections you can see again.

00:10:15,670	Up until about the year 2000 household sizes that were continually kind of declining and the kind of just now Over the last, um generation or so kind of flattened out a little bit, um, and anticipate that to continue into the future.

00:10:35,700	Uh, a lot of lines on this map, but the you know the biggest, um employers are you know in in these different industries so again broke down the employment by industry we’ve got, you know, health care is big, obviously state government Um, retail trade or some of the the the bigger ones there, And, So. This ones in pool data really breaks it down looks at a national model Looks at you know, how does that break down? Then into? Um You know the individual, you know counties in the Bismarck Mandan area.

00:10:55,530	Um and you can see actually had seen kind of labor Force participation start to drop off in in terms of the number of jobs per person since 2010, but that the projections actually anticipate that the number of jobs per person will start to pick back up.

00:11:16,270	Looked at different gross scenarios You can see here through the year 2050 with a low, medium and high of 1.4%, 1.1% and 0.9% growth annually. Um, we’ve got different outcomes for regional, Um You know population that ranged from about just over 200,000 to only about 100 and 73,000.

00:11:38,600	Um and so medium growth was the Was the preferred and a and adopted sort of gross scenario that came out of that. And, then through those allocation workshops worked with, um all of you all. I know, we had several iterations of this as well, uh, just looking at, you know where we anticipate, Uh, future jobs. And future households.

00:12:01,130	And, then the more recent part, So once we kind of work through that, you know, ATAC, um, took that information and and kind of build their 1st 1st cut at a regional travel model. Um, you know that again That’s at North Dakota State University, Um, the the consulting team. Kind of reviewed that, um, their app and HDR model experts kind of, you know, added some input.

00:12:20,870	I know you all added some network. Uh, input. Um, you know, on on what you kind of saw. And Yeah, how we could make that better. And, so we had multiple iterations, some of it pretty technical where our folks were kind of digging into the script.

00:12:37,400	Looking at some of the calibration adjustments kind of requesting some changes from a tac. Um, I think they, you know, looking at a tax final, um, calibration statistics. I Think even with us kind of Pushing back on a few of their adjustments, I think overall, the the goodness of it with the model looks pretty good.

00:12:52,870	And that’s kind of a high level summary. I know a lot of you all were Involved in that, um any questions, comments? Any questions or comments on the final report. Oh, OK, OK. Yeah. Jason, This is gabe maybe just for for clarification. We talk about the growth rate of the 1.1%. Can. You clarify fat’s population or jobs, or both. That’s population, So.

00:13:18,730	That’s kind of the that baseline starting point. And then, um, based on some of those those woods and pool type trends in that labor force participation, you could see that we Um, we’re anticipating slightly increasing, uh, jobs per person.

00:13:38,800	So, some of that’s you know, higher labor force participation some of that’s you know, folks working multiple jobs. OK, thank you. Yeah. Uh, Yeah. Thanks, Rachel and jason. Thanks for the overview. And, thanks to you and Uh, srf in developing this. It. Uh, it was a lot of work and and, uh you were instrumental in in getting us to where we’re at.

00:14:01,800	I think we’re gonna be considering the, uh adopting or approving the final report? Uh, today that that we have in our packets, So, Jason. I just had a few, uh Comments. Some of them are more substantive. Some of them are kind of grammatical. I guess one of the more substantive comments I would consider.

00:14:21,070	Um, I think the employment base data that we’re using this go round is different than in Previous iterations. And. I. Guess. Why. That’s important is it leads to lower overall employment forecasted, at least on the Bismarck side of the river, and I think it’s It’s Not. Necessarily. The methodology is that different, but it’s just a different set of. I.

00:14:40,670	Think base data that was used and I know there was a lot of questions when we were reviewing the the last travel to demand model Update versus this model update and why we’re getting less employment, at least on the Bismarck side. With.

00:14:57,800	This Latest Update versus the last one, and I think it came down to basically the the base employment data that was used. I maybe missed it, Jason in here, but I’m wondering if it would be worth a discussion of of that in the report in case others are investigating this in the future and just providing a justification for why the different base data was used and why it’s why it’s

00:15:14,100	different. Right? Yeah, I think that’s probably a good idea. Yeah. No, you’re right. There’s Um Some data sources really focus on Um I, I. Guess, uh, jobs that are at at locations of businesses, and in some cases we’ve got Like sole proprietorships that show up in other databases where it’s you know, folks, that might be, um,

00:15:38,930	working at or how working out of their houses and, you know, running kind of little side gigs. Um, you know, work over, you know, selling selling things kind of isn’t you know a AAA dealer through, you know, various different. Um, I.

00:15:55,730	Guess the, uh, you know different businesses like you know, way back when you know Avon or or Tupperware or things like that. So, um Yeah. So. The. The. The key is that you know the the data really work on trying to get that relationship between what’s defined as a job.

00:16:12,600	And how many trips are attracted to each of those jobs and and you know, and I know you. Yeah. You’re you’re pretty aware of the modeling process, So. Yeah. Oh, that’s a good discussion that we we should probably just note. Yeah, OK. Thank you? Yeah? Yeah, and I’m total and total agreement with the methodology that was used and why it was used. But just maybe noting, noting the difference. And.

00:16:31,930	It’s probably worth. Yeah, even a footnote when we show that number rather than burying it into the discussion. Talk about that, So if somebody’s going through and going Hey, why do we eat? Yeah? Why do I see another data source? That shows more jobs.

00:16:46,730	Yeah, OK, um I guess these a RE a little bit more specific, so I’ll just refer to the the report page numbers. Um, so on Page two, I guess in the right hand column. Middle paragraph it talks about the Bismarck Mandan Metropolitan Statistical area. This is an easy one to to miss. But. Actually, Oliver County is part of our MS A as well.

00:17:07,130	Um so I think I think only burly and Morton were noted there and there’s uh, it it impacts the map on page three as well. When you’re showing The the MS A for the for the area. I. Guess. Just, a general comment So the first ones I noticed this on were on Page. Nine of the document.

00:17:31,730	Um, just the figures for three and four there. Um I’m assuming there’s maybe a A source data set that that that information is getting pulled from, I think it would be helpful to if you could include that source data where it’s appropriate on on those figures.

00:17:50,870	I noticed that some of the figures had the source data and some did not, And it makes sense that the ones that were original that you guys developed did not, but a lot of times. I think they’re referring to Back to other data sources and I, I guess for my own selfish reasons.

00:18:05,870	I’d prefer to see a source on there because when I’m looking back at this, you know, years from now, I, I don’t wanna hunt and peck through the actual document itself. I’d rather just look at where the where the source data is from the figure. OK? No. That’s a. That’s A.

00:18:22,770	Good comment Yeah that in in those two particular ones are Uh, woods and pool uh that they source from the BE A, but yeah, we’ll We’ll do that, so it’s easy to find right when you’re looking at the data. You. You’ve got the sources right there. On page 23 of the document. Right HAND COLUMN. It’s the Last sentence on the page.

00:18:44,230	It refers to figure 14 showing, uh, the the sentence says figure 14 shows the allocation of jobs by TAZ. I’m wondering if that’s supposed to be figure 12 rather than 14. At least that’s how it looked like it was labeled in the In the packet. Just kind of a grammatical issue on page 28 right hand column. So. Second paragraph, says Trip productions and productions.

00:19:09,330	Um, just maybe produce too many productions in that paragraph anyways, or that sentence, corrections and attractions. You apologize for that. No worries. Uh and then on page 29. It’s, uh, a figure that shows the friction factors. Um, the figure number says. I think it’s saying one figure 146.

00:19:33,370	The document refers to it, I Think as figure 16 But I. I couldn’t find a figure 15. So. Um it’s either figure 15 or 16 and and the the figure number on that figure should probably change so Oh, I apologize. Oh. That’s OK and then the last one I had is on page 30 would be the second paragraph or sentence.

00:19:58,930	Or, it says. In. Both cases There is likely a case that residents on each of the river I suspect it’s supposed to be each side of the river. Uh, which page was that? I’m sorry. Oh, yeah, I think it was on page 30. Yeah page 32nd paragraph first sentence there. Yeah, OK. Yep. To catch OK. Yep.

00:20:27,130	And. That’s all for me, So thank you, jason. Thank you for that. Um, we’ll be sure to get those noted, and, uh, addressed. Uh, are there any additional questions or comments on the final report or the presentation? OK? Um I think then we’ll address the final report and move on to the

00:20:52,270	update of the MTP. Um I’ll ask if there are wishes from the board regarding the final presentation of the TD, Ms. This has been I would I would move to approve the the the report? Uh, with the, uh, modifications noted. Thank you, ben. I have a first.

00:21:18,430	Is there a second? I second Thank you, Greg. We will take roll call. Man. Yes, Deirdre hughes. Yes game show. Yes, John Sack. Yes. Andrew Strai, Craig Frazer. Yes Mitch Flanagan Dean Schloss? Yes. Wayne Zacker chair lukaszewski. Yes. Uh, the final report is approved. Uh, thanks, jason. I will let you take the podium again for the update on the MTP. Right? Yeah.

00:21:49,400	So, um Really what we’ve been working towards is, um, public meeting. Um, coming up April 29th. We did have a, uh, successful stakeholder set up two stakeholder meetings. Um April 2nd. Um and so really, you know, focusing on this phase of kind of the the ideas on the overall, um, strategies will have an online portion.

00:22:17,730	Um to that, um As. Well, that will launch. Uh, while we’ve got that public meeting as well. We also are working towards having an in person event. July 3rd in Mandan. So. That would be, uh Overlapping with the festivities downtown related to Independence Day, Fourth of July.

00:22:40,770	Um and, Yeah also working through trying to make, uh, give the steering committee Um, the opportunity maybe to continue reacting to alternatives and and starting to work through that kind of prioritization process as well. So Thanks, Jason. Any questions on the MTP update. I. Don’t see anything? Thanks. Thanks again, jason. I appreciate all the input and the continued Yeah support working through the MTP.

00:23:08,470	Um, Item four on the agenda is the 2024 Unified planning work program, Contract Amendment. Um, I’ll be presenting on this, uh, exhibit E in the packet. Is an amendment that we’ve received from ND DOT lo local government, uh, regarding an adjustment to our unified planning work program for the year. Uh, I’ll share screen very quickly.

00:24:00,770	Um, so the board may recall earlier this year. Uh, we, uh, requested and received approval of adjustments to the 2024 work program. Um Very late Last year we received the final determination of how much federal funding the NP will receive in 2024 and through the process of getting approval from federal highways.

00:24:26,470	Uh regarding, uh, the changes that we earlier, uh, presented earlier. Um uh, ND DOT is now in the position to be able to adjust our work program to reflect the actual uh, federal funding that we are receiving in 24. Now that the MP O is moving to an annual uh up WP contract.

00:24:50,400	Uh, we expect to have that annual number released at the end of every year. Uh, maybe a little bit sooner. Um, but we may be seeing some contract am It’s just to right size that, um, contracted amount. Um So as this contract amendment states, uh, the overall federal funding for 2024 is $888,857 and that is being matched locally, uh, with a total of $222,214.

00:25:24,600	Upon approval. This will be executed by the NPO policy board, Uh, chair as well as myself as witness. Are there any questions on the amendment? Um, if there are no questions, would there be a motion for approval on the contract Amendment? This is gabe. So moved. Thank you, gabe. I have a first. Is there a second? Oh.

00:25:57,130	This is Ben all second Thank you, Ben. We’ll take roll call. Ben Ari? Yes, Peter Hughes. Yes game show. Yes, john Sack. Yes andrew Stra? Yes. Greg Frazer Mitch Flanagan Yes Dean Schloss wayne Zacker Chair Lukaszewski. Yes. Uh, the amendment is approved.

00:26:25,470	Item five on the agenda is an update with a blue Webber from Bolton and M for the safe routes to services Complete Street study. Uh, high blue Welcome. Everyone. Uh, thanks for having me. Um, so over the past month, we’ve had a a lot of things going on.

00:26:50,630	We hosted five different listening sessions across the community, uh, with Missouri Valley Coalition for homeless Peoples Sacred Pipe Resource Center, Youth Works and Ministry on the margins. Uh, we also had survey boxes that were located throughout the community, so we had two over in man, Dan and then three in Bismarck. Uh and so along with those we also had an interactive Web map that we had out there.

00:27:10,470	And so we’re gaining lots and lots of, uh, public feedback. Uh And. Then. On Friday. We held a steering committee, uh, with a number of you, uh, from the call and really started to go over the data that we’ve been looking at as well as how that correlates with the, uh, public input that we’ve heard. So.

00:27:27,970	Uh, the steering committee was a a little bit of a presentation, but also really just to gain Site from the Syrian committee about the process where things are going, maybe things that we needed to build on, so we talked a lot about, uh, the activity nodes as well as some of the corridors and how best to present those, uh, when looking at our recommended

00:27:47,130	areas, our hot hot spots as we’re calling them, Um, and some of the the ways that we’re looking at those so not really getting into the recommendations, Uh, but really getting into the information that’s behind that. So, uh, lots and lots Going on and I. Now.

00:28:07,030	It’s starting to refine that down, and, uh, next, will be hope, uh, holding an open house, uh, as well as some different community advisory group meetings as well. But. I really, just lots going on, and I excited. The process is moving along. Any questions? Any comments? Perfect. Well, I Uh, with that II.

00:28:59,200	I should be back next month for another update, Uh, Cody or mike will be joining me for that one as well. Well, thank you. Blue. I appreciate your work on this, and I appreciate you reaching out to so many different community groups for the study. Uh, I think it’s coming together very well. It’s been It’s been fun and I look forward to the next phases on it. Very good. Thank you.

00:29:17,330	Thanks, everyone. Um, Item six on the agenda is An administrative modification to the 2024 UPWP, Um, this might be a bit confusing because we just approved a contract amendment for the UWP. And so let me take a moment to to define how these two documents are similar, but different.

00:29:46,670	Um, uh, the amendment that we just approved is the contract between the MP and N DOT, Um It supports the unified planning work program. Um, and the reason we needed to approve that amendment was because our previous work program document did not correctly state how much federal funding we intended to use. Um, I’m sorry. That’s a MI. That’s a mistake.

00:30:11,300	It did it. It did state that? Um, However. We did not have the appropriate contract with DOT to support that document, so Brought the contract in line with the UWP document. And. That brings us to this modification.

00:30:38,570	Um Again, you’ll recall over the last few months, the NPO staff has been working with DOT and federal highways to establish our work program, and so we were moving some funds around, um, especially adding some funding to purchase street light data that was used in the safe routes to services study. Um Uh, because of those adjustments. Um and now the final approval from federal highways.

00:31:04,670	We have the opportunity to, um do a a very slight modification, uh, which would Remove $10,000 from our Task 204, and that is for our planning studies. Uh, specifically, the $10,000 used for the street light data acquisition. And it would move this $10,000 back into the original task area task 102 and this is a task area that provides funding for staff.

00:31:36,770	Uh if they have, uh Uh, training opportunities like attending a conference as well as any travel expenses associated with those conferences. Um So we Earlier in the year we had moved this $10,000 into the planning studies to help fund the safe routes to services.

00:32:03,430	We’ve, since, um, addressed this issue with an amendment and so technically task 204 has an additional $10,000 in it that we don’t necessarily plan to use for, uh, anything, um, regarding the studies and for that purpose, I’d like to move this $10,000 back into travel, training and expenses. In the event later this year. We do attend conference and we need additional funds for that.

00:32:27,400	Um, that’s the purpose of the modification. Um, because it is within, uh The guidance of our PPP. Uh, I am able to Administratively move these funds and, um uh, the document as exhibit G is to describe that change. Uh, this was executed on March 19th.

00:32:57,430	Are there any questions on the modification? Um I if there are no questions, then I will move to other business. Are there any items for other business? Hi, Wayne. Go ahead, Rachel, you and I need to Please send me some dates for your leisure. Um, we have the mid set up for the three other MP OS. We are tying, um them to their attack meetings.

00:33:21,800	Uh, in May for ground parks and Fargo and then in June for my Not. So, um, being everybody’s in town. Just send me some dates that would work for you and we will get something figured out so Thank you? I will do that, wayne. Any other updates. Gabe? Yes. So crystal holders is our new traffic engineer.

00:33:42,070	I’d like to have him come up and say hi. I know you participated, but he was on zoom last time. So. Chris, if you could just come up and introduce yourself, please. Hello, Uh, chris holder city of Bismarck traffic engineer started the beginning of March so looking forward to working with all you Well.

00:34:01,470	Thanks, Chris, We’re glad to have you here and, uh, I know you, um your position tends to sit, uh, to fill in for Gabe’s when he’s unavailable. So, Uh, we look forward to working with you when you have the opportunity to sit at the tag table. Thank you. Any other items.

00:34:22,900	Um, I just wanted to give the jurisdictions a notice that, uh, the MP O will be establishing our 2025 budget this week. Um and I’ll be reaching out to each of you, um as your jurisdictions to discuss, uh, And your your thoughts and and maybe get a thumbs up on the studies, the transportation studies that we plan to do in 2025. So.

00:34:45,130	That will be, uh, I’ll be taking the information that you’ve provided in the past. Um And providing you a a draft program for next year, Uh, as well as a draft estimate of the local cost. Uh, if there are studies that you’d like to see, um, looked at for next year that are not on that list.

00:35:06,630	Um, by all means, uh, bring that to my attention, and I’ll do what I can to add that into the program. Um, but do know that I will be reaching out to you early this week to set up a meeting. Wayne. You have something else. So with that.

00:35:24,200	I, Um, I was gonna hold off for a mite to get, uh, preliminary numbers for 2025. So. I will work to get you some estimates at least so, um, to start with, so that would be great. Thanks, wayne. Ah, if there is no other business, I will announce us adjourned. Thank you for